图形神经网络(GNN)正在化学工程中出现,以基于分子图的物理化学特性端到端学习。 GNNS的一个关键要素是合并函数,将原子矢量结合到分子指纹中。大多数以前的作品都使用标准池功能来预测各种属性。但是,不合适的合并功能会导致概括不佳的非物理GNN。我们根据有关学习特性的物理知识比较并选择有意义的GNN合并方法。通过量子机械计算计算出的分子特性证明了物理池函数的影响。我们还将结果与最近的SET2Set合并方法进行了比较。我们建议使用总和池来预测取决于分子大小的性能并比较分子大小无关的属性的池函数。总体而言,我们表明物理池功能的使用显着增强了概括。
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离子液体(ILS)是可持续过程的重要溶剂,并且需要预测IL中溶质的活性系数(AC)。最近,矩阵完成方法(MCM),变压器和图神经网络(GNN)在预测二元混合物的AC方面表现出很高的精度,例如宇宙RS和UNIFAC优于公认的模型。 GNN在这里特别有希望,因为他们学习了分子图到特性的关系,而无需预处理,通常是变压器所需的,并且与MCMS不同,适用于不包括训练中不包括的分子。但是,对于ILS,目前缺少GNN应用程序。在此,我们提出了一个GNN,以预测IL中溶质的温度依赖性无限稀释液。我们在包括40,000多个AC值的数据库上训练GNN,并将其与最先进的MCM进行比较。 GNN和MCM实现了类似的高预测性能,GNN还可以对培训期间未考虑的IL和溶质的AC进行高质量的预测。
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电力在不同的时间范围和法规上在各个市场上进行交易。由于更高的可再生能源渗透,短期交易变得越来越重要。在德国,盘中电价通常以独特的小时模式围绕EPEX现货市场的白天价格波动。这项工作提出了一种概率建模方法,该方法对日前合同的盘中价格差异进行了建模。该模型通过将每天的每日价格间隔的四个15分钟的间隔视为四维的关节分布,从而捕获了新兴的小时模式。使用归一化流量,即结合条件多元密度估计和概率回归的深层生成模型,从而学习了最终的多元价格差异分布。将归一化流程与选择的历史数据,高斯副群和高斯回归模型进行了比较。在不同的模型中,归一化流量最准确地识别趋势,并且预测间隔最窄。值得注意的是,归一化流是唯一识别稀有价格峰的方法。最后,这项工作讨论了不同外部影响因素的影响,并发现个人大多数因素都可以忽略不计。只有价格差异实现的直接历史和所有投入因素的组合才能显着改善预测。
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我们提出了一种专门的方案生成方法,该方法利用预测信息来生成用于日期调度问题的方案。特别是,我们使用归一化的流量来通过从有条件的分布进行采样,该分布使用风速预测来定制方案到特定的一天。我们将生成的方案应用于风能生产者的随机日期招标问题中,并分析该方案是否产生有利可图的决策。与高斯Copulas和Wasserstein基因的对抗网络相比,正常化的流程成功地缩小了每日趋势周围的各种场景范围,同时保持了各种可能的实现。在随机日间招标问题中,与历史场景的无条件选择相比,所有方法的条件情况都会导致更稳定的盈利结果。归一化流量始终获得最高利润,即使对于小型场景。
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现代能源系统的设计和运营受到时间依赖性和不确定参数的严重影响,例如可再生发电,负荷需求和电价。这些通常由称为场景的一组离散的实现表示。一种流行的情景生成方法使用允许场景生成的深生成模型(DGM),而无需现有的数据分布。但是,生成方案的验证很困难,目前缺乏对适当的验证方法的全面讨论。为了开始讨论,我们对能源情景生成文献中当前使用的验证方法的关键评估。特别是,我们评估基于概率密度,自动相关和功率谱密度的验证方法。此外,我们建议使用多重术后波动分析(MFDFA)作为峰,爆发和平稳等非琐碎功能的额外验证方法。作为代表性的例子,我们培养了两种可再生发电时间序列(2013年到2015年德国的Photovolataic Antialsion(VAES),以及来自德国的光伏和风的变分自动化器(VAES)和一天电费时间序列在2017年至2019年形成欧洲能源交换。我们将四种验证方法应用于历史和生成的数据,并讨论验证结果的解释以及验证方法的常见错误,陷阱和局限性。我们的评估表明,没有单一方法足够特征,但理想的验证应该包括多种方法,并且在短时间内的情况下仔细解释。
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基于神经网络的学习,从光伏(PV)和风中的来源以及负载需求的来源的不可转型可再生发电的分布的学习最近得到了注意力。由于通过直接对数似然最大化训练,归一化流量密度模型特别适用于此任务。然而,从图像生成领域的研究表明,标准归一化流量只能学习歧管分布的涂抹版本。以前的作品在规范化基于流的方案生成的情况下,不要解决这个问题,并且掩弹的分布导致噪声时间序列的采样。在本文中,我们利用了主成分分析(PCA)的等距,从而建立了较低尺寸空间中的标准化流量,同时保持直接和计算有效的似然最大化。我们在2013年至2015年培训PV和风力发电的数据以及德国的负载需求的所得到的主要成分流量(PCF)。本研究结果表明,PCF保留了原始分布的关键特征,如作为时间序列的概率密度和频率行为。然而,PCF的应用不限于可再生能力,而是扩展到任何数据集,时间序列或其他方式,可以使用PCA有效地减少。
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各种科学和工程领域使用参数化机制模型。工程师和科学家通常可以假设几个竞争模型来解释特定的过程或现象。考虑一个模特歧视设置,我们希望找到最佳机械,动态模型候选者和最佳模型参数估计。通常,若干竞争机械模型可以解释可用数据,因此通过找到最大化模型预测发散的实验设置,可以通过找到最大化模型预测发散的实验设置来实现最佳地收集额外数据的动态实验。我们争论文献中有两种主要方法,用于解决最佳设计问题:(i)分析方法,使用线性和高斯近似来找设计目标的闭合表达式,以及(ii)数据驱动方法,这通常依赖于计算密集的蒙特卡罗技术。 olofsson等人。 (ICML 35,2018)介绍了高斯工艺(GP)替代模型来杂交的分析和数据驱动方法,这允许计算的实验设计,以识别黑盒式模型。在这项研究中,我们证明我们可以扩展现有的动态实验设计方法,以纳入更广泛的问题不确定性。我们还延伸了Olofsson等人。 (2018)使用GP代理模型来辨别动态黑盒式模型的方法。我们在文献中的着名案例研究中评估了我们的方法,并探讨了使用GP代理到近似基于梯度的方法的后果。
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In the past years, deep learning has seen an increase of usage in the domain of histopathological applications. However, while these approaches have shown great potential, in high-risk environments deep learning models need to be able to judge their own uncertainty and be able to reject inputs when there is a significant chance of misclassification. In this work, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of the most commonly used uncertainty and robustness methods for the classification of Whole-Slide-Images under domain shift using the H\&E stained Camelyon17 breast cancer dataset. Although it is known that histopathological data can be subject to strong domain shift and label noise, to our knowledge this is the first work that compares the most common methods for uncertainty estimation under these aspects. In our experiments, we compare Stochastic Variational Inference, Monte-Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Test-Time Data Augmentation as well as combinations thereof. We observe that ensembles of methods generally lead to higher accuracies and better calibration and that Test-Time Data Augmentation can be a promising alternative when choosing an appropriate set of augmentations. Across methods, a rejection of the most uncertain tiles leads to a significant increase in classification accuracy on both in-distribution as well as out-of-distribution data. Furthermore, we conduct experiments comparing these methods under varying conditions of label noise. We observe that the border regions of the Camelyon17 dataset are subject to label noise and evaluate the robustness of the included methods against different noise levels. Lastly, we publish our code framework to facilitate further research on uncertainty estimation on histopathological data.
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Charisma is considered as one's ability to attract and potentially also influence others. Clearly, there can be considerable interest from an artificial intelligence's (AI) perspective to provide it with such skill. Beyond, a plethora of use cases opens up for computational measurement of human charisma, such as for tutoring humans in the acquisition of charisma, mediating human-to-human conversation, or identifying charismatic individuals in big social data. A number of models exist that base charisma on various dimensions, often following the idea that charisma is given if someone could and would help others. Examples include influence (could help) and affability (would help) in scientific studies or power (could help), presence, and warmth (both would help) as a popular concept. Modelling high levels in these dimensions for humanoid robots or virtual agents, seems accomplishable. Beyond, also automatic measurement appears quite feasible with the recent advances in the related fields of Affective Computing and Social Signal Processing. Here, we, thereforem present a blueprint for building machines that can appear charismatic, but also analyse the charisma of others. To this end, we first provide the psychological perspective including different models of charisma and behavioural cues of it. We then switch to conversational charisma in spoken language as an exemplary modality that is essential for human-human and human-computer conversations. The computational perspective then deals with the recognition and generation of charismatic behaviour by AI. This includes an overview of the state of play in the field and the aforementioned blueprint. We then name exemplary use cases of computational charismatic skills before switching to ethical aspects and concluding this overview and perspective on building charisma-enabled AI.
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Deep learning-based 3D human pose estimation performs best when trained on large amounts of labeled data, making combined learning from many datasets an important research direction. One obstacle to this endeavor are the different skeleton formats provided by different datasets, i.e., they do not label the same set of anatomical landmarks. There is little prior research on how to best supervise one model with such discrepant labels. We show that simply using separate output heads for different skeletons results in inconsistent depth estimates and insufficient information sharing across skeletons. As a remedy, we propose a novel affine-combining autoencoder (ACAE) method to perform dimensionality reduction on the number of landmarks. The discovered latent 3D points capture the redundancy among skeletons, enabling enhanced information sharing when used for consistency regularization. Our approach scales to an extreme multi-dataset regime, where we use 28 3D human pose datasets to supervise one model, which outperforms prior work on a range of benchmarks, including the challenging 3D Poses in the Wild (3DPW) dataset. Our code and models are available for research purposes.
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